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Dynamic Hand Value
Most advanced players know
that Sklansky hand rankings are not set in
stone but are rather general guidelines for ranking hands. This is because hand
value fluctuates greatly depending on the number of people in the pot. Many
people are not quite sure how to treat their starting hands when the game's
dynamic fluctuates between loose/tight and thus affecting the number of people
in the pot. The answer to this dilemma lies with what type of hand you hold, and
how many players this type of hand is suitable against.
I am going to divide the types
of hands into three categories: Large pairs (JJ or higher), Big cards (two cards
of JQKA), and small pairs/suited connectors (I know they are totally different
but I am going to treat them the same here; you'll see why). Most of this is
written assuming the game is Fixed-Limit Hold'em with seven or more players.
Large Pairs
These are 'premium' hands that
people hope to receive. They have a lot of value in of themselves and are not
board-dependent to win. People generally raise preflop with these hands for
value, but often a major reason to raise preflop is just to knock people out.
For example, consider KK. Unless an ace hits the board, KK will probably be the
best hand at the flop. However, if the board is Q102 and someone has QJ and
someone else has AK, they will be tempted to draw to see another card. If you
make this more complicated and make the Q2 suited, someone with two cards of
that same suit will be drawing as well. All of the sudden, you face a situation
where there are about 16 outs (depending what the suited cards are) against you.
Now, while you still have the highest chance out of anyone to win the pot, it is
more likely that someone else will win the pot instead of you!
This is a common situation
with large pairs, where they are the best hand at the flop but there is enough
runners out there that one of them is bound to beat you at the river. A way to
somewhat alleviate this situation is to knock these people out at the flop by
making raises aimed at limiting the size of the pot. Re-raise people after they
raised you to make it expensive to see the turn. For example, in the above
situation, if you were in early position and there were 5 people at the flop,
you should consider check at the flop hoping to check-raise to knock the people
between you and the original better out. That way, people with 5 outs or less
won't be in the pot against you and you have to worry less about long shot draws
beating you. Please note: this check raise move works best when you were not the
original preflop raiser. The "check raise to knock others out" move is also very
good when you hit top pair.
Nevertheless, while these
hands are prone to being outdrawn, you should be very aggressive with them
preflop. Simply put, raise and re-raise. With AA and KK, you should always cap.
With QQ, I would suggest capping unless you have a strong belief that someone
may have AA or KK. The reason you want to continue raising preflop is because
you want to get as much dead money in the pot as possible. More than likely, you
will be seeing the river no matter what (unless perhaps an ace comes and you
have QQ or something). Because of this, you might as well get as much money into
the pot from people who will totally miss the flop and will fold their hands.
The only hand that is probably not worth a cap is JJ. The reason for this is
that there is just too high of a chance that someone may have AA/KK/QQ.
Big Cards
Big cards like AK/AQ/KQ are
great for shorthanded games, but often a curse in long handed games. While big
cards can at least be an over pair and win money from someone whose hand won't
likely improve (such as top pair/top kicker), these hands are the ones that make
top pair/top kicker. Thus, when you hit the board with these hands, unless you
are out kicking your opponent or your opponent is an idiot, he or she will
generally be on a draw against you. Thus, you generally want to go ahead and
take the pot down at the flop, or at least make it very expensive for your
opponent to see the turn.
Small/Medium Pairs and
Suited Connectors
These hands change drastically
in value depending on the situation. Assuming a non heads up situation (where
small pairs do well simply do the chance of your opponent not hitting anything),
these are hands you want to play in a multi-way pot. You generally won't hit much
with these hands, or you will hit a very nice hand like a three of a kind,
flush, or straight. The overreaching goal with these hands is to have pot odds
in your favor. (Note: Axs plays a lot like a suited connector.)
If you have a suited
connector, you are hoping there are enough callers and dead money in the pot to
justify drawing to the straight or flush. Pot odds is why these hands will show
a profit with four or more people in the pot, but will generally be poor against
two or three opponents. In a multi-way pot with a suited connector, you may have
a flush or straight draw (that will win if you hit) but only must put in 1/10 of
the pot to see the next card, which is very good odds.
If you have a small pair, you
are hoping for the 13% chance of hitting a set on the flop. So if 7 people are
in the pot, you have the exact pot odds for a set. However, for small pairs, not
only are the pot odds good for a set, the implied odds once you hit your set are
great. If you hit your set, chances are good that someone will have a second
best hand that has a slim-to-none chance of beating you (for example if you have
33, and flop is KJ3, there's a good chance someone will pay you off with a K or
maybe even a J). So small pairs really begin showing their profit potential with
around 5 or more people in the pot.
A common response to
the small pair strategy is "How should I evaluate the set potential of large
pairs." After all, I talk about how the implied odds once you hit a set are
generally great. Unfortunately, this does not apply to large pairs. If you hit a
set with a large pair, there's a good chance it will be top set (meaning there's
no cards on the board that are higher than that), so you won't get much action
from anything besides draws. After all, if you have AA and the flop is (AJ5),
there's only so much action you can get from a hand like KJ. |